Keywords
Markov chain
Overall simulation model
financial expenditure
Disabled population
How to Cite
Abstract
Purpose: This study aims to provide decision-makers with a reference by predicting the financial expenditures and trends of long-term care insurance in China over the next thirty years.
Approach/Methodology/Design: This study employs Markov chains and overall simulation model to forecast the extent of financial expenditures on long-term care for employees and residents. It examines the financial outlay levels under various entitlement payment scenarios and estimates the discrepancies in financial expenditures between employees and residents from 2021 to 2050.
Findings: The results show that (1) The number of disabled elderly employees aged 60 and above will be about 14,288 thousand, and the number of disabled elderly residents will be about 68,176 thousand in 2050. (2) Under the low scenario, the financial expenditures of elderly employees and residents in 2050 will reach 29,636.87 million yuan and 17,597.92 million yuan respectively, which are 2.86 and 10.24 times as much as those in 2021. The total financial expenditures under the medium and high scenarios will be 2.38 and 5.51 times as much as those under the low scenario respectively. (3) The scale of financial expenditure on long-term care insurance for residents far exceeds that of employees, and the trend is expanding.
Practical Implications: This study may provide theoretical support for the full implementation of long-term care insurance policies.
Originality/value: This study uses Markov models and overall simulation models, along with typical representative plans from pilot areas in China, to differentiate the insurance identity of elderly employees and residents and to estimate the scale and trend of financial expenditures for long-term care insurance in China from 2021 to 2050.
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